2024 Buffalo Bills fantasy football draft tips and season outlook (2024)

In case you haven’t heard, fantasy football season is in full swing! While there are thousands of articles and videos breaking down every player that exists, their underlying numbers, and mother’s maiden name, one factor always rears its ugly head when it’s your turn to draft — rabid homerism.

Now that we’re past the drought era where (outside of Stevie Johnson and 2012 C.J. Spiller) drafting a Buffalo Bills player was a death knell for your team. Over the course of the last four seasons, quarterback Josh Allen and wide receiver Stefon Diggs were consistent must-haves players.

But in 2024, things have changed significantly at One Bills Drive, and so too should fantasy outlooks for your favorite players. Almost the entire receiving core has changed, offensive coordinator Joe Brady is in charge for his first full season in Buffalo, and other teams have put in plenty of offseason work to improve their rosters.

Let’s take a look at what could be in store, fantasy-football-wise, for the Buffalo Bills in 2024. I’ll be using Fantasy Pro’s ADP aggregate (combined from ESPN, Sleeper, NFL.com and Rotoworld Sports) for PPR format leagues to help determine value for every relevant Bills player.

Ground Rules

First we should establish a couple key laws of the land when considering any Buffalo Bills player during your drafts. These factors can alter the incorporation of player analyses and help contextualize a player’s value in your specific league.

Know Your Audience

One of the biggest factors to me in any fantasy football league, whether with friends/family, co-workers, or online competition is gauging how everyone else will view certain players in that draft. In 2022 I won the Buffalo Rumblings fantasy football league without selecting a single Bills player. Even though Josh Allen was QB2 and Stefon Diggs was WR4, they were overdrafted and that allowed me to pick up more valuable players later in the draft. If everyone in the league is a Bills fan, let another team manager take the big swings and pick up the pieces left behind as someone will take Allen in rounds one or two and a higher-end wide receiver will slip through the cracks.

If fandom is more varied, look to use your league mates’ ball knowledge or lack-thereof to your advantage. If it’s an older crowd, running backs are more likely to be highly valued — so be careful not to fall behind but also don’t reach for middling players. If it’s a less=knowledgeable crowd, don’t be too analytical in your picks as they won’t be using spreadsheets and the value will come from “lesser” known but effective players being left on the board.

Utilize Your Leagues Specific Format

This is pretty simple, but make sure you understand what kind of players fit the format you are playing in as it can spike or crater a player’s value (see Alvin Kamara in PPR vs Standard formats). Best Ball has really taken off and makes the case for some players a lot more compelling, but if it’s a typical week-to-week league then they become bench fodder or undrafted. The number of teams should also change your strategy on quarterbacks/tight ends versus other positions. If it’s a 10 man or fewer league, a top-end quarterback and tight end becomes more valuable as the difference between the top guys and the middle of the pack is more stark than the middle to the bottom (gap between Josh Allen in 2023 as QB1 to Jalen Hurts QB2 was 39 points while the gap between QB6 Brock Purdy and QB14 Russell Wilson was 40 points). On the other hand, if the league is 12 or more people and you miss out on a top-flight quarterback or tight end, stock up on receivers and backs and take advantage of having more good players at your disposal week to week.

With that, lets look at every viable fantasy option aboard the 2024 Buffalo Bills roster, sorted by lowest to highest ADP.

Josh Allen (Average ADP 24.8, QB 1 in 2023)

Allen has finished as fantasy football’s QB 1 in three of the past four seasons with at least 400 total points in each of those seasons (Patrick Mahomes in 2022 was the only other player to eclipse 400 in that span). But with that high of a degree of excellence comes a cost as 12 running backs and 12 wide receivers are expected to be gone by the time of Allen’s average placement. That creates scarcity around running backs and I would advise caution unless you’re picking in the 2-4 slots and able to lock down a wide receiver early, and guarantee a decent running back in the start of the third round.

In terms of ceiling, it’ll be difficult for Allen to blow by the whole league again as he needed 15 rushing scores last year (an NFL record he set and shared with Jalen Hurts). The Bills brought in wide receiver Curtis Samuel and running Ray Davis, two players with rushing ability, plus offensive coordinator Joe Brady could look to use James Cook near the goal line more, siphoning points away from Allen. When you pick a quarterback this high you end up banking on a perfect storm of circ*mstance, perfect health, good performances every week and no sloppy-weather games.

In a redraft league it will be hard to match Allen’s floor as he’s always able to put together a good fantasy performance without necessarily producing a good real-life passing game. But spending heavy on a quarterback could mean any down week is an automatic loss and you would be safer compiling two of the later-round quarterbacks (I love Kyler Murray and Trevor Lawrence for value) and picking based on matchups.

Verdict: Do not draft Josh Allen in Bills leagues/ Draft near ADP in general public leagues

PFF on X

James Cook (ADP 34.5, RB 11 in 2023)

Coming off a highly efficient 2023, Cook is a very polarizing player for fantasy purposes. Joe Brady definitely made him more of a focal point when he took over. But how much of that was up to circ*mstance? Diggs and Davis weren’t performing and teams were game-planning for them more than the running game. Add in a rookie “thunder” to James Cooks’ lightning plus an MVP-caliber quarterback and you’re left with a back in Cook who has the ability to be top three in fantasy but has no givens in terms of red zone touches or bulk carries.

However, Cook is going as the 13th running back off the board at the moment, a slight discount for his performances last season, especially since he only found the end zone twice on the ground last year. Joe Brady knows how to utilize Cook so there will definitely be weeks where he’s the star of the show, but predicting those weeks could be tedious. His ADP seems to account for this so he’s definitely worth a swing if you’re only wanting to draft a single Bills player. However, I would recommend taking another running back in the first five rounds and make sure Cook isn't your fantasy bellcow.

Verdict: Go for it

Draftsharks.com

Dalton Kincaid (ADP 50, TE11 in 2023)

Following a boom-or-bust rookie campaign, Kincaid is being valued as fantasy football’s TE5 and I have no problem with it. Kincaid poses the best mismatch on the team with his size and route running, while also being one of few tight ends with a chance to be among the most targeted receivers on his team. Last year, Kincaid saw the field on just 65% of snaps (23rd among tight ends), but he had the eighth-most targets at the position and second-most routes run from the slot. Couple that with just two touchdowns scored in 2023 and an 11th-place finish — that feels like the lowest output we’ll ever see from the Utah product in a full season. Tight end is always a difficult position to find consistent players with high ceilings weekly, and you can grab Kincaid at the price of a lower end WR2 with the very real chance he’s the top producer at his position.

Verdict: Full send, because he may never be this low again

Keon Coleman (ADP 105.6 2023 N/A)

His personality and skillset will make Keon Coleman a fan favorite and viable contributor on offense this season. But fantasy wise? Coleman is as unsure as anyone around his ADP and his upside mostly revolves around his touchdown potential and presumed high usage because of his draft position. Rookie wide receivers are no longer seen as projects because of break outs by Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and Puka Nacua, but Coleman doesn't have elite speed or route running like those first-year studs.

In Best Ball leagues, Keon is going in the late seventh round versus the ADP listed here, which is at the end of the ninth. So picking him up won’t mean Coleman has to start, but I wouldn’t jump the gun for him and would rather wait for a couple down weeks and see if he lands on the waiver wire.

Verdict: Pass drafting, but a solid free-agent (FA) pickup

The 33rd Team

Khalil Shakir(ADP 133.8, WR 58 in 2023)
Curtis Samuel (ADP 141.0, WR 46 in 2023)

I’ve lumped Shakir and Samuel together because I think their upside is similar and they’re the only pair of Bills players projected to be drafted in the same round. Shakir is shockingly low to me as he’s the only wide receiver on the team with experience catching footballs from Josh Allen. Shakir also saw his role increase last year as Diggs and Davis went quiet. Shakir’s 35 catches were the most efficient in the league, posting the highest EPA per target in 2023 and now he has less competition. Yet his production is supposed to remain stagnant? Bias aside, I think he’s one of the bigger steals at his value considering he has a path to being the top pass catcher on what should be a top-10 offense. Shakir also came out of college with prowess playing in the backfield and as a quarterback so schemed trick plays could also be in the cards.

Samuel (now dealing with turf toe, ADP hasn’t fully adjusted for that) is more proven in how high he can fly. Yet last year with a quarterback (Sam Howell) who threw for almost 4,000 yards, he only managed 613 yards in 16 games. His usage out of jet sweeps is a nice plus as Samuel has scored a rushing TD in five of his seven NFL seasons. Just remember that he won’t reach Deebo Samuel’s level of consistency with those touches, so it’ll be difficult to bank on him running the ball every week.

Turf Toe is also a concerning injury for a player built on athleticism. So, with both wideouts so close to each other, make sure you grab Shakir early if you have to and let Samuel fall to the 13th round before consideration.

Verdict: Hammer Shakir, Fade the Vet

Ray Davis (ADP 208.3, 2023 N/A)

Going towards the end of drafts, Davis is a good stash candidate for your team if you want someone with upside should anything happen to James Cook. Brady did give running back Ty Johnson a healthy amount of touches last season and the Bills have been looking for a solid red zone running back for a few years. If Cook is healthy, it seems impossible for Davis to provide any value consistently. Even if he is forced to start there's a high chance he’ll still share touches with Johnson/whoever is signed during Cook’s absence.

Verdict: Draft as Injury Insurance, not a handcuff

Tyler Bass (ADP 183.6, K 17 in 2023)

I’m very much an anti-kicker person in fantasy football. I don’t think they’re worth drafting and I believe you can pick one up every couple weeks and be just fine. Brandon Aubrey went nuclear last year and was 21 points better than second place, but for the last three seasons, the highest gap between K3 and K12 has been 21 points (!). That's too small to care in my opinion and given Bass’ recent struggles, likelihood of windy conditions in Buffalo a couple times a year, and the Bills’ propensity to go for it on fourth down, I cannot justify grabbing Bass before the draft is over, if at all. Let others overdraft kickers.

Verdict: Hard Pass

Buffalo Bills Defense (ADP 213.5 , D 3 in 2023)

Like kickers, I believe you can get by just fine without drafting a defense. That said, the Bills have been top nine in fantasy every season since 2019, and they had their best season ever under head coach Sean McDermott last year. The core of the defense has gotten younger/newer and the front seven is now the strength, so last year’s pass-rushing success (fifth-most in the NFL) is repeatable. The problem lies with the schedule as Buffalo plays the Houston Texans, Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins x2, and mix in the New York Jets who shouldn’t be an anemic mess for once. The Bills also don’t have a marquee return man, so special teams won’t be a huge boost. As such, you can grab an equally good (fantasy) defense somewhere else and avoid watching your favorite team and fantasy team suffer at the same time.

Verdict: Will probably be better by real-life standards

Honorable Mentions

Tight end Dawson Knox (TE35) is worth a dart throw for the very end of your bench if you drafted Kincaid or failed to land a top-flight tight end. He’ll be a consistent part of the offense, but he might only be good for stealing touchdowns from more relevant players.

Wide receiver Mack Hollins and running back Ty Johnson could have value if injuries occur, but they’re not considered draftable going into the season.

In conclusion

Nothing is as fleeting as the build-up to the NFL season. In three weeks this could all be highly idiotic or a transcription of pure genius. And I love it. Dealing with biases for your favorite and least-favorite players is tough, and I think it’s best to draft players who are the most enjoyable for you to watch. That way if they underperform it’s not as rage inducing as other scenarios might reveal. Try not to get over-eager on Buffalo Bills players and make sure they fit the structure of your team first.

Or draft them all and have a blast, I’m not not your boss. But who doesn’t want bragging rights over their boss?!